To paraphrase Yogi Berra, It seems like “…déjà vu all over again,” with this technology stuff. I spent the early part of my career 
in the communications industry. If it transmitted or received a signal, I probably worked on it. In the late ’80s and early ’90s there was a technology war raging between the various camps related to cellular phone and system technology.
AMPS (Advanced Mobile Phone Service) had run its course and was successful beyond anybody’s wildest dreams. The analog systems were maxing out and pushing the laws of physics while trying to accommodate the re-use required to serve the growing cellular phone-user population. Analog cellular was a huge jump forward compared to IMTS (Improved Mobile Telephone Service), and expectations for this upstart technology were getting higher.
The continuing strain on the analog radio systems lead to a wave of new technologies that would solve the problem of too many users and too few channels to use. N-AMPS, TDMA, CDMA, GSM, etc. all competed for table space and claimed they were the wave of the future.
These technologies just needed a majority of carriers to jump on board, and they could rule the world. TDMA was the first true contender and the choice of McCaw Cellular here in the states. That lead to some interesting fireworks when companies like PacTel Cellular, NYNEX, SNET, and others jumped on the CDMA bandwagon.
Europe, being Europe, went with their “mutually agreed upon standard” GSM. And so it went.
I helped deploy the first commercial CDMA system in Los Angeles way back in the early ’90s. It’s still there. TDMA has given way to GSM in all U.S. markets and both Sprint and Verizon Wireless still maintain CDMA as their technology of choice. Europe is all GSM, all the time. Many other markets in the world have chosen GSM as well, but others have chosen CMDA. Does any of this sound vaguely familiar?
Back in those halcyon days of cellular, everybody said that once one technology achieved critical mass the rest would die. TDMA was the first true “next generation” cellular technology that died, and it was also the last. (N-AMPS doesn’t really count since it was just the same analog stuff in a smaller channel package.) All the other next-gen system technologies currently still exist. Why? Why not? As I said many times back then and seem to be saying now, it was an exciting time to be in the business. It wasn’t very stable, but it was exciting.
We see the same kind of religious war occurring today in the mobile space. For native applications to survive, HTML5 has to die. For HTML5 to win, native applications have to go the way of the dinosaurs. And let’s not even talk about hybrid applications. Forget about it.
The point here is that many of the existing cellular technologies we take for granted seem to coexist today, years after the winners should have taken a victory lap and the losers should be taking a dirt nap. Why can’t the same be said for native, HTML5 and hybrid applications that use those same phones to operate? There is no logical reason to abandon one type of solution just because there is a shiny new toy. They all have their strengths and weaknesses. The key is to choose the right solution for your specific need. As mentioned in other Mobile Masters posts, these competing technologies all offer great and differing capabilities. So why not keep them all?
So say a prayer for all those TDMA lovers out there still mourning its passing. Maybe they can get hooked up with HTML5 crowd now and regain their zest for life. It’s always a possibility. Stability is overrated. Bring on the excitement!
Tags: Brian Philbin, HTML5, Hybrid Mobile Apps, Mobile Technology, Mobility - General, Native Applications, Wireless Carriers
